week 6. seven types of thought experiments

1. Students present Time framework for sci-fi movies.
2. Thought experiment

"One way this might be possible is to treat design speculations not as
narratives or coherent “worlds” but as thought experiments—constructions,
crafted from ideas expressed through design—that help us think about
difficult issues." p. 80. SE

"Thought experiments are usually done in fields
where it is possible to precisely define limits and rules, such as mathematics,
science (particularly physics), and philosophy (especially ethics) to test
ideas, refute theories, challenge limits, or explore possible implications.
They make full use of the imagination and are often beautiful designs in
themselves."

"One of our favorite forms of thought experiment uses reductio ad absurdum,
a type of logical argument in which one assumes a claim for the sake of
argument and derives an absurd or ridiculous outcome by taking it to its
extreme, concluding that the original claim must have been wrong because it
led to such an absurd result."

"Another well-established form of thought experiment is the counterfactual. A
historical fact is changed to see what might have happened, if. . . . It is
sometimes used in history to understand the importance of key events and
their influence on how the world turned out."


"...we are
more interested in using props to transport viewers’ imagination into a
thought experiment, or what-if, and allow enough room for them to make
their own interpretations." p. 93, SE


Generally speaking, there are seven types of thought experiments in which one reasons from causes to effects, or effects to causes. (wikipedia)

(1) 

Prefactual

Prefactual (before the fact) thought experiments — — speculate on possible future outcomes, given the present, and ask "What will be the outcome if event E occurs?"

 (2)

Counterfactual

Counterfactual (contrary to established fact) thought experiments —  — speculate on the possible outcomes of a different past; and ask "What might have happened if A had happened instead of B?" 

(3)

Semifactual

Semifactual thought experiments — — speculate on the extent to which things might have remained the same, despite there being a different past; and asks the question Even though X happened instead of E, would Y have still occurred? 

(4)

Prediction

The activity of prediction attempts to project the circumstances of the present into the future.

(5)

Hindcasting

The activity of hindcasting involves running a forecast model after an event has happened in order to test whether the model's simulation is valid.

(6)

Retrodiction

The activity of retrodiction (or postdiction) involves moving backwards in time, step-by-step, in as many stages as are considered necessary, from the present into the speculated past to establish the ultimate cause of a specific event (e.g., reverse engineeringand forensics).

(7)

Backcasting

he activity of backcasting —involves establishing the description of a very definite and very specific future situation. It then involves an imaginary moving backwards in time, step-by-step, in as many stages as are considered necessary, from the future to the present to reveal the mechanism through which that particular specified future could be attained from the present.

See Blade runner 2049 ->2048 nowhere to run -> 2036 Nexus Dawn -> Blackout 2022

Bladerunner (1982) 2019